A low-pressure area near the northern Yucatan Peninsula has become better organized creating favorable conditions for the development of a tropical storm. The tropical disturbance is identified as Invest 96L by the National Hurricane Center. This means that the track guidance will be issued every six hours, which will help in determining the track more accurately.
According to the center, there is 70% chance of this tropical disturbance transforming into a tropical storm by this weekend.
The system is expected to organize into a tropical depression as early as Friday. The chances of system developing into storm will get better with the possibility of encouraging upper winds during the weekend. That’s why people living in the coastal areas of Gulf of Mexico have been put on alert.
It is yet too early to ascertain the exact track of this developing weather system. Different computer models indicate varied possible scenarios both in terms of the development and track of the system.
The NAM model is taking it to the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday and Sunday. The Canadian forecast model suggests that it will move toward the northern Gulf of Mexico possibly as a hurricane by Sunday and then track westward, making a landfall in Texas as a powerful hurricane on next Wednesday. The UKMET predicts that it will track toward south Texas on Monday. The European model shows that the system will head for the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday before hitting northern Florida as a hurricane coming Thursday.
Over the weekend, the system will be located in the central Gulf of Mexico, according to Jack Beven, a senior forecaster with the National Hurricane Center. “Beyond that it is very difficult to say,” he said.
Beven said that the system would probably not develop into a tropical storm straightaway as it is very large and “will take time to consolidate.”
Whether the weather disturbance develops into a tropical storm or not, the possibility of flooding rains across several areas of Florida remains. Increase in the number of coastal tides is expected during the weekend. There is a likelihood of offshore conditions to become rough, particularly over the deep water areas of Southeast Louisiana. Acadiana can expect breezy weekend.
The weather forecasters said that people residing along the U.S. Gulf Coast should keep a close watch on the development and advancement of this system all through the weekend.

Updated: June 23, 2012 — 1:02 pm

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